Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
